Replay five real hurricanes, advisory by advisory, with the probabilities MeteoAct Envelope would have produced at each step.
Hindsight is best experienced on a larger screen.
MeteoAct Envelope is designed to help decision-makers pull the right levers before a hurricane, when pressure is high and decisions are expensive. There will always be uncertainty in the weather forecast; MeteoAct Envelope translates that uncertainty into action using a custom-built statistical-physical hurricane model.
This scenario imagines the decisions faced by the operations manager at a manufacturing facility in the days before a hurricane and guides that decision-maker through a changing forecast. Our hypothetical manager has a menu of four mitigation options of increasing cost and efficacy: do nothing, secure the exterior of the building, protect openings to prevent wind damage, and shut down the facility. In this scenario, we assume the optimal action is triggered based on the probability of hurricane-force wind gusts and that no action can be taken in the 24 hours before impact at a site.
In a real scenario, the cost-benefit math will depend on the particulars of your problems (your constraints, your mitigation actions, your sites, and your cost structure) and may be more complicated than the simplified scenarios presented here. MeteoAct Envelope is built with the flexibility to handle a wide range of live-hurricane decision problems. To explore how MeteoAct Envelope can solve your organization’s problems, reach out at sales@meteoact.com.
Each action is recommended once the site gust probability crosses its threshold. Thresholds rise with the cost of the action: low-cost precautions start early and a costly shutdown requires stronger evidence.